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In a development with implications for China's work force and economic growth, a new study says more than 25% of adults in the country are overweight or obese and that the number could double over the next 20 years.
The report, based on data collected from 20,000 patients in China over the past 15 years, says obesity has increased 1.2% a year among men in that time -- higher than the rate for adult men in the U.S., U.K. and Australia.
With the population at 1.3 billion, that means an additional 11 million Chinese adults are becoming overweight or obese every year. In addition, 12 million to 14 million adults are becoming at risk for diabetes and hypertension annually, says study author Barry Popkin, director of the obesity center and professor of global nutrition at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
'When you have this many people becoming diabetic and hypertensive, you think about the health-care costs and it's pretty staggering,' says Dr. Popkin. The study is set to be published today in the health policy journal Health Affairs.
The study suggests that the problem may be accelerating. And the reasons for the rise in obesity isn't because of increased consumption of fast food or other Western foods in China, Dr. Popkin says. Rather, improving living standards mean that growing numbers of Chinese can now afford vegetable oil, beef and dairy-food sources that until recently had been too costly. A more sedentary lifestyle for many Chinese plays an important role as well.
Obesity-related costs are likely to lead not only to drastic increases in direct medical costs, but also to indirect costs like decreased worker productivity and absenteeism.
Health-care costs could also have implications for companies looking to invest in China. Many companies provide medical care for workers, and thus they could end up footing much of the bill for obesity-related costs, Dr. Popkin says.
Those costs could prompt companies to invest in less-costly markets, such as Vietnam, and ultimately slow the Chinese economy. 'U.S. labor costs skyrocketed and people are moving away from investing here,' says Dr. Popkin. 'It's the same issue in China.'
一项新的研究称，中国有超过四分之一的成人超重或患有肥胖症，这个数字在未来20年里还可能增加一倍。这种变化可能对中国的劳动力和经济增长产生影响。
这份报告是根据过去15年里从中国2万名患者中搜集的数据编写的。报告称，在此期间成年男性中的肥胖症患者每年平均增长1.2%，这个增幅超过了美国、英国和澳大利亚。
中国共有13亿人口，这就意味着中国成年人中每年新增超重或肥胖症人口1,100万人。此外，这项研究的作者、北卡罗纳大学肥胖症中心主任和全球营养学教授巴里•波普金(Barry Popkin)表示，中国每年还有1,200万至1,400万成年人存在患有糖尿病和高血压的风险。
波普金说，当许多人身患糖尿病和高血压时，你就不能不考虑到医疗成本，而且这个数额可能非常巨大。这份研究报告将发表在周二出版的美国《保健事务》(Health Affairs)杂志上。
研究显示，这个问题可能还会加速发展。波普金称，肥胖人群增加的原因不是由于中国人消费的快餐食品或其它西式食品的增加，而是由于生活水平的提高让越来越多的中国人现在能够买得起不久前还显得过于昂贵的植物油、牛肉和奶制品了。许多中国人久坐不动的生活方式也起到了重要的作用。
与肥胖有关的问题不仅可能导致直接医疗费用的大幅增加，还会产生员工生产率下降和缺勤等间接成本。
医疗成本也是有意在中国投资的公司应该考虑的问题。波普金说，许多公司都为工人提供医疗保险，因此它们与员工肥胖问题有关的开支可能增加。
这些开支可能促使公司投资于越南等成本较低的市场，最终导致中国经济放缓。波普金说，美国的劳动力成本大幅上升，人们已越来越不愿意在美国投资。中国同样面临这个问题。
