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We're used to watching the price of oil mock gravity, but there's an even more essential commodity that's also become scarcer and pricier in recent months: Traders are paying record prices for wheat on world markets, thanks in part to shortages caused by a mix of drought and flooding. Canada, the second-biggest wheat producer after the U.S., looks set to harvest its smallest crop in five years, due to an unusually dry July, while production in the European Union may be down nearly 40% from last year. Growing global demand for biofuels is also eating up grain production, and boosting prices.
As a result of the supply squeeze, global inventories of wheat are expected to fall to their lowest level in 26 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
If the world warms as expected over the coming decades, the terrible farming year of 2007 may be just the beginning. As temperatures rise, many studies predict that crop yields will decline, as the extreme droughts and floods that damaged this year's wheat crops become more common. The most fertile areas are likely to be found further north in response to the heat, opening up the possibility of agriculture in territories such as Siberia.
我们对油价虚高已经熟视无睹了，但是最近几个月来，另一个更加基本的商品已经变得越来越稀缺和昂贵了。贸易商们在世界市场上正在为小麦付出历史的高价，部分原因是由于干旱和水灾共同造成的短缺。居美国之后的第二大小麦生产国加拿大由于7月份异常的干旱看起来今年的收成将是5年来最差的。而欧盟小麦产量将比去年减少40%。全球性的对生物燃料需求的增加更多地消耗谷物产量并使价格进一步提高。
根据美国农业部的预测，供应紧缩造成的后果使全球小麦库存可能会降到26年来的最低点。
在未来几十年，如果世界像预期的那样变得越来越热，2007年可怕的农业可能仅仅是个开始。许多研究结果预测，随着气温升高、农作物的产量将下降，像今年那样损害小麦作物的极端的干旱和水灾将变得更加平凡。随着气候变暖，最肥沃的区域可能会北移，这就为开发类似于西伯利亚那样的地域提供了可能性。
